Aaron Harang - Top of the rotation, or #4 starter?

Recently, one of ESPN's top analysts, Keith Law, suggested that if Reds ace Aaron Harang was in the American league he would be nothing more than a #4 starter. His argument is based on Harang's numbers being inflated due to him pitching in the weakest division in baseball. This entire point is of course contradictory to tons of statistical evidence.

1. Suggesting that Harang's numbers are heavily inflated due to the weak competition in the central is highly overstated. Here are the average offenses that the Reds might possible face:

NL Central: 4.45 runs/game
NL West: 4.45 runs/game
NL East: 4.79 runs/game
National league: 4.56 runs/game
Americal League: 4 .90 runs/game
MLB: 4.73 runs/game

So even though Harang faces easier competition, the most you could possibly knock off his ERA due to the weak competition of the NL central instead of facing the NL as a whole is about .10 runs. That alone hardly turns him from top of the rotation candidate, to 4th starter as Law basically claimed. Plus considering that only half of harang's games have come against the central division, the effect is even smaller. Basically, if you are going to throw Harang under the bus for facing weak competition, then you need to basically throw down the rest of the central and the west too.

If you really want to make a fair point about the skill level of Harang's opponents, you should look at the average MLB offense (4.73 runs/game). The average offense that Harang has faced this season is 4.62 runs/game. So basically the benefit Harang gets by pitching against easier opponents is 0.11 runs per game. That's hardly worth considring, plus this argument by Law still ignores all of the factos that go against Harang.



2. Aaron Harang pitches in GABP. This park is arguably the worst pitching pitching park in baseball. GABP's park factor this season ranks 9th in MLB, in 2006 it ranked 1st, and in 2005 it ranked 3rd.

GABP gives up a ton of homers. Even with the awful home park Harang has managed to keep his HR rate at a respectable number. These park effects more than outweigh the advantage Harang gets by facing "easier" opposition.



3. The Reds defence sucks. This season it ranks 28th in defensive efficiency ratio (DER). In 2006 it ranked 21st. In 2005 it again ranked 28th. Due to the horrendous fielding of the Reds, Harang has experince some unfortunate BAPIP luck, and it's not his fault. he has no control over this. Year in and year out, Harang has pitched with terrible BAPIP's because of the fielding behind him. Again, this is something Harang has no control over, and if you want to know how good Harang really is, poor BAPIp luck needs to be accounted for.


4. Here are Harang's numbers the last 3 seasons:


_____ERA _FIP _BAPIP _K/9 _BB/9_ HR/9 _K/BB _GB/FB _HR/FB

05: _3.83 _3.85 __.310 __6.93 __2.17 __0.94 ___3.20 __1.01 _8.8%
06: _3.76 _3.73 __.325 __8.30 __2.15 __1.08 ___3.86 __0.97 _10.5%
07: _3.37 _3.31 __.301 __8.20 __2.30 __0.73 ___3.56 __0.97 _6.8%



Simply put, Harang has been good, and he's been consistent. He strikes out a lot of guys, and he has great control. When you factor in that he's played in a bandbox during his 3 successful seasons, and that his horrid defensive support has caused a high BAPIP, and his FIP tells you what kind of pitcher he is. A consistent sub 4.00 ERA calibre pitcher.

Law may want to due regressions for better opponents, but the fact remains that you also need to consider his current surroundings. Pitching in an ultra hitters park, and having terrible defenders behind him has a huge effect too. He can continue to call Harang a #4 starter, but let's look at his peers in the central division that he has outperformed this season:

Roy Oswalt
Carlos Zambrano
Ian Snell
Ted Lilly
Rich Hill
Bronson Arroyo
Adam Waighnwright
Ben Sheetsetc
etc. etc.

There is not one single pitcher in the central division that has outperformed Aaron Harang. Are the likes of Oswalt and Zambrano are also #4 starters? I'm guessing the team that gives Zambrano upwards of 20M this offseason would disagree with that. This isn't a 1 year thing either. Harang has been a very good starter for 3 seasons, and knowing his fantastic durability (consistent 210 + innings) I'm guessing he's not due to slow down any time soon.

Harang is a legit top of the rotation starter, and if anything, his numbers are underappreciated, not overappreciated.